The Indie Development Survival Study
How long does a game project actually last? This study follows projects listed on ModDB and IndieDB from the day they first appeared in public to the last sign of life on their page — and measures how many ever ship, and how many go quiet first.
The headline rates
Each figure is a share of the projects whose dates could actually be read — the only denominator the study allows itself. A rate with an empty cohort is left blank rather than reported as zero.
1029 of 1133 projects with a determined status shipped at least one build
73 of 1133: silent three years or more and never published a file
50 of 1133: never shipped, and silent five years or more
Share of the 1029 released projects that later stopped updating
How long projects survive
Of every project old enough to reach a given anniversary, how much of that cohort was still showing signs of life at it — and what share had published a build by then.
- Still active
- Has a release
Cohort at each anniversary — Y1: 654 projects · Y2: 599 projects · Y3: 520 projects · Y5: 388 projects · Y7: 300 projects · Y10: 164 projects
Does waiting produce a release?
Among projects that have already existed for a given number of years, the share that ever published a build.
| Project age | Projects | Ever released | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ years old | 654 | 562 | 85.9% |
| 3+ years old | 520 | 445 | 85.6% |
| 5+ years old | 388 | 333 | 85.8% |
| 10+ years old | 164 | 143 | 87.2% |
How they end
The dataset split across the study's outcome taxonomy, from shipped-and-alive to silent-before-release.
Where the data comes from
Four sources feed the dataset. Two can contain a project that never released; two only list mods that already carry a file. Keeping them labelled is what stops a release-only cohort from flattering the release rate.
| Source | Cohort | How it is read | Projects | Released | Release share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ModDB | Mixed — may never release | Internet Archive snapshots | 17 | 10 | 58.8% |
| IndieDB | Mixed — may never release | Internet Archive snapshots | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| mod.io | Released only | Platform API, full pages | 400 | 400 | 100% |
| Nexus Mods | Released only | Platform API, uniform sample | 715 | 619 | 86.6% |
A release-only source reads near 100% by definition, which is why the headline rates are measured on the archive cohort alone. Last collection run: 2026-10-31 00:07.
The question
Most game projects announced in public are never finished. This study measures that directly: how long projects on ModDB and IndieDB actually survive, what share ever publish a build, and how much longer a released project lasts than an unreleased one. Every figure is computed from the projects' own public pages, on a stated observation date, with the cohort shown beside it.
The rules
- Still active
- No release yet, with activity inside the last 12 months.
- Stalled
- No release, and silent between one and three years.
- Abandoned
- No release, and silent three years or more.
- Vaporware
- No release, and silent five years or more.
- Shipped, then dark
- Published at least one build, then silent three years or more.
- Collapsed in year one
- Never shipped, silent more than 180 days, under a year old.
Where the numbers come from
Listing pages on ModDB (mods) and IndieDB (indie games), sampled across both catalogues and across years so the sample is not one era's front page. Each project is then read from its own page — every dated element — and from its stats page, which reports the file and download counters. A release means at least one published file; a promised future release is never counted as one.
Reading from Internet Archive snapshots is the permitted path: the catalogues themselves block automated requests. Each row keeps its live project URL, so any figure can be traced back to the page it came from.
What this cannot say
- Neither catalogue publishes a start date, so the earliest dated element on the project page stands in for announcement. A project that migrated pages reads younger than it is.
- Activity means a dated element on the page — an update, news post or file. A project whose developer worked silently looks dormant.
- Both sites refuse automated reads, so every row is read from the Internet Archive's snapshot of the public page. A page with no archived copy stays in the dataset unread rather than being invented.
- This is a sample of catalogue pages, not the whole catalogue. Every rate is quoted with the cohort it came from.
- Nothing here identifies a developer. The unit of study is the project, which is what either site actually publishes.
Coverage
Last collection run 10/31/2026, 12:07:16 AM · observation date 2026-10-31
Measured on 2026-10-31 across 1327 projects, 1133 of which had readable dates (18 of them on ModDB/IndieDB). Median silence across the dataset: 772 days since the last sign of life. Four sources feed this dataset: ModDB and IndieDB, read through the Internet Archive's snapshots of their public pages; and mod.io and Nexus Mods, read from their own APIs — mod.io in full for every game visited, Nexus as a uniform random sample of its mod ids, because it publishes no bulk listing. The headline rates are measured only on the ModDB/IndieDB cohort, the one population where a project that never released can be observed. mod.io and Nexus only list mods that already carry a file, so their release share is reported per source instead of being folded into that rate. On ModDB and IndieDB, announcement and last-activity dates are the earliest and latest dated elements the project page publishes; neither site declares a project start date, so this is a documented proxy, not a site field. On mod.io and Nexus the dates are the platform's own creation and last-update timestamps. A release means the source reports at least one file — a ModDB/IndieDB file counter, a mod.io modfile, or a published Nexus mod. A promise of a future release is never counted as one.